State of the State: Our GOTV Strategy

Texas 2020

Prepared by Texas natives Shelly Livingston and Janelle Ellis

Out of 36 TX congressional districts, we identified 5 House races Democrats could potentially pick up this November.  In order of priority ratings, they are:  TX 23, 22, 24, and possibly 21 and 10.  Unfortunately at this time, the Senate race to unseat incumbent Republican John Cornyn does not appear to be within reach; however, we intend to update our information after the July 14th primary runoff on this Senate race, as well as a few other House races summarized below.  We used ratings provided by both political analysts Charlie Cook and Nathan Gonzales and basic race information from Ballotpedia.

Cook – Leans Republican | Gonzales – Likely Republican

Texas’ 10th Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes all of Austin, Colorado, Fayette, Waller, and Washington counties. Areas of Bastrop, Harris, Lee, and Travis counties also lie within the district. 

The current representative of the 10th Congressional District is Republican Michael McCaul. 

Democratic runoff is between primary care doctor Pritesh Ghandi and teacher and attorney Mike Siegel.  Siegel won w 44% and Ghandi w 33%. Siegel holds more cash.  Both focusing on health care and environment. 

Shelly’s personal favorite is Ghandi, who at present hasn’t had much time to campaign, as he’s devoted to Coronavirus efforts.  Recently endorsed by Planned Parenthood Federation of America PAC, he supports “Medicare for All Who Want It” and would bring a much-needed science focus to D.C.

Cook – Leans Republican | Gonzales – Likely Republican

Texas’ 21st Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Bandera, Blanco, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr, and Real counties as well as areas of Bexar, Comal, Hays, and Travis counties. 

The current representative of the 21st Congressional District is one-term Republican Representative Chip Roy. 

Former state senator and indefatigable marathon filibuster queen Democrat Wendy Davis won the primary earlier

Libertarian and Green Party each have one candidate in general election.

Cook – Tossup | Gonzales – Tilt Rep

Texas’ 22nd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes part of Ford Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties. 

The current representative of the 22nd Congressional District is Republican Pete Olson, who is retiring. 

Sri Preston Kulkarni won the Democratic primary in March. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas and his M.P.A. from Harvard University. In addition, he served in the United States Foreign Service from 2003 to 2017 and worked as a policy and defense advisor for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). 

Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls and Republican donor Kathaleen Wall are running in the Republican primary runoff on July 14th. Nehls received 40.5% of the vote to Wall’s 19.4% in the March 3rd primary.

The Houston Chronicle said Olson’s retirement triggered a “political free-for-all.” There were 15 candidates running in the Republican primary, one of the largest in the state. 

Although long considered to be a reliably Republican seat, the general election in the 22nd  is expected to be competitive. Major independent observers are rating the general election as a toss-up or as tilt Republican. In 2018, Olson won re-election 51.4% to 46.5%.

Cook – Leans Dem | Gonzales – Leans Dem

Texas’ 23rd Congressional District is located in the western portion of the state. The district includes Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Culberson, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Kinney, Loving, Maverick, Medina, Pecos, Presidio, Reagan, Reeves, Schleicher, Sutton, Terrell, Upton, Uvalde, Val Verde, Ward, Winkler, and Zavala counties. Areas of Bexar, El Paso, and La Salle counties are also included in the district. 

The current representative of the 23rd Congressional District is Will Hurd (R), who is retiring.

Democrat Gina Ortiz-Jones professional experience is quite impressive, including serving as director for investment at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and as the senior advisor for trade enforcement. In addition, she is a U.S. Air Force veteran, where she served as an intelligence officer in Iraq. Ortiz-Jones earned her master’s and bachelor’s degrees in economics and a bachelor’s degree in East Asian studies all from Boston University. She also earned a graduate degree from the U.S. Army School of Advanced Military Studies.

On the Republican side, US Navy veteran Tony Gonzales and Air Force veteran Raul Reyes, Jr. are competing in the Republican primary runoff on July 14th.

Cook – Tossup | Gonzales – Tilt Republican

Texas’ 24th Congressional District is located in the northern portion of the state and includes portions of Tarrant, Denton and Dallas counties. 

The current representative of the 24th Congressional District is Republican Kenny Marchant, who is retiring.

Democratic Primary winners facing each other in July runoff are Weatherford School Board Member and retired Air Force officer Kim Olson and Carrolton School Board Member Candace Valuenzuela.  Olson received 11 points more in the March primary.  Valenzuela highlights homelessness as a child and was endorsed before the primary by former HUD Secretary Julian Castro and Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Irving Texas Mayor and HUD official with the Trump Regime, Beth Ann Duyne is the Republican primary winner.

Shelly isn’t worried about losing any House seats, but Janelle—much more in the know with Texas “insiders”—says we need to watch carefully seats held by Colin Allred in TX-32 and Joaquin Castro in TX-20!

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