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Arizona’s recent promising shift towards Democrats only seems to be increasing! Pundits say this is driven by the fact that Arizona is now a COVID-19 hot spot as well as the site of wide protests after state troopers shot a black man asleep in his car on the highway. This shift is remarkable. Other than Bill Clinton’s 1996 win, the state has voted GOP for president since 1952. However, as of late July, fully 71% disapprove of the job Republican Governor Doug Ducey is doing with COVID-19. This number is echoed in polling around strong disapproval of Donald Trump.
This is an encouraging echo of 2018, when moderate suburban voters and young Latinos together brought in a Democratic Senator in 2018 for the first time in thirty years. The Senate seat up this year has similarly encouraging numbers for the Democrat. Arizonans are registering to vote in high numbers, particularly young Latinos—24% of the state’s electorate—who are angered by Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. This is still a swing state, not a slam dunk, and AZ has a history of hard-core conservativism, particularly on immigration issues. After all, that’s where “papers, please” started. But numbers show that Arizonans increasingly are calling and mobilizing for real change. WNDC can be part of flipping AZ!WNDC-Supported Candidates
US SENATE
Mark Kelly
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Dr. Hiral Tiperneni
Election Timelines*
Sat, Sep 19 – Military and Overseas Ballots Mailed
Mon, Oct 5 – Voter registration deadline
Wed, Oct 7 – Ballots mailed, in-person voting available
Fri, Oct 23 – Last day to request a ballot in the mail
Sat, Oct 24 – Weekend voting available
Tues, Oct 27 – Last day to mail back your ballot
*each county runs its own election program. These dates are based on Maricopa County Elections, the state’s most populous county and the county in which Dr. Tiperneni is running.
Numbers are great in Colorado! As of late July, former Vice President Biden is polling double digits ahead of Trump and Senate candidate John Hickenlooper is similarly outpacing GOP incumbent Cory Gardner. Colorado’s been trending Democratic for the past several cycles, starting with giving its electoral votes to Obama in 2008. What’s more, Democratic voter registration is now higher than GOP registration for the first time in years. Voters are highly disapproving of Trump’s coronavirus response, and largely supportive of stay-at-home orders.
Though numbers are so good that many pundits are suggesting Colorado can be safely tucked in the Democratic column, both Biden and Trump campaigns say they plan to fight hard. Trump has had an operation there for over a year and recently boasted of contacting its 2 millionth CO voter contact. That doesn’t seem to have translated into much of a polling bump for the GOP…and Democrats are just getting started! Help WNDC help Colorado keep its Blue momentum!
WNDC-Supported Candidate
US SENATE
John Hickenlooper
Election Timelines
Sat, Sep 19 – Military and Overseas Ballots Mailed
Sat, Sep 19 – First day a county clerk may begin issuing a mail ballot for the 2020 General Election to any eligible elector who requests one in person at the county clerk’s office
Fri, Oct 2 – County clerk must begin issuing mail ballots for the 2020 General Election to any eligible elector who requests one in person at the county clerk’s office
Fri, Oct 9 – First day that mail ballots for the 2020 General Election may be mailed to voters
Tues, Oct 13 – Voter registration deadline
Tues, Oct 26 – Last day for an individual to submit a voter registration application and still receive a ballot in the mail for the 2020 General Election
Georgia’s in play—but it needs our help! Two Senate seats are up. One is rated as having good potential for Democrats to flip (see write up on Jon Ossoff). The other is an unusual open contestation with three Democrats and two Republicans, in which there will be a runoff if no one gets 50% of the vote on November 3.
Stacey Abrams made a strong showing in 2018, when gun control advocate Lucy McBath flipped a traditionally red Congressional seat. Vice President Biden continues to make inroads against Trump. Is this the year Georgia turns blue? Let’s make it so, as its 16 electoral votes are significant.
There are challenges. Massive voter suppression in Georgia in 2018 is now creating worries particularly among Black voters that their votes won’t be counted. The GOP has a history of closing polls in Democratic areas and purging voter rolls. What’s more, parts of GA are experiencing heavy health and economic consequences of COVID-19. Reaching low-income, low-propensity voters is difficult but important, and WNDC is teaming up particularly with Reclaim Our Vote to inform and mobilize these communities.
The good news is that, while Stacey Abrams lost her 2018 Senate bid by 55,000 votes (often attributed to voter suppression), more than 700,000 Georgians have since registered to vote—and that number increases by about 1250 each day. It’s a young and diverse crowd which Democrats expect to vote blue—similar to demographic changes in many southern states. Democratic voter turnout was exceptionally high for the primaries…leading to Blue dreams for November.
WNDC-Supported Candidates
US SENATE
Jon Ossoff
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Lucy McBath
Election Timelines
Thurs May 7 – First day to request an absentee ballot
Mon, Oct 5 – Voter registration deadline
Mon, Oct 12 – Advanced in-person early voting begins
Thurs, Oct 15 – First day of in-person voting
Sat, Oct 24 – Weekend voting available
Fri, Oct 30 – Last day to request an absentee ballot
Despite winning Kansas by 20 points in 2016, Trump’s approval rating there has sunk. Democrat Laura Kelly handily won the Kansas gubernatorial seat in 2018 — the same year that Democrats also flipped a traditionally Red House seat in Kansas City as well. Pundits attribute this to a hunger for moderation amongst Kansan voters, which seems to be continuing in 2020. Most recently this was seen in the GOP primary in which a hard-core conservative contender lost to a more moderate.
Some polls see Biden and Trump as relatively close in Kansas, though most major polling outfits see it as competitive but leaning Republican. More than half of voters identify as moderate or liberal, and Kansas has an increasingly urban and suburban, rather than rural, population. Analysts are seeing these suburban voters as becoming more and more disillusioned with the GOP of today, and note that many of them voted for Democrat Laura Kelly for governor. Let’s help Laura Kelly’s win become a win for Joe Biden!
WNDC-Supported Candidate
US SENATE
Dr. Barbara Bollier
Election Timelines
Sat, Sep 19 – Military and Overseas Ballots Mailed
Tues, Oct 13 – Voter registration deadline
Wed, Oct 14 – Begin mailing Advance Voter Ballots
Mon, Oct 19 – Advance Voting in the office begins (8:00 am to 7:00 pm)
Tues, Oct 27 – Advance Mail Ballot request deadline
Fri, Oct 30 – Last full day of Advance Voting in the office
Mon, Nov 2 – Advance Voting in the office ends at 12:00 pm
We can make a difference in Maine!
Maine is considered a swing state, as Clinton won three of its four electoral votes there in 2016 – but the state hadn’t gone Democratic since 1988. Gary Johnson, the Independent candidate in 2016, won 5 % of the vote at that time, some arguing it took from Clinton who won by only a very narrow margin of 2.9%. Perhaps indicating a hopeful trend, Democrat Janet Mills won the governorship in 2018.
Maine is a state outside the norm, with a population 95% White. It also is complicated. It has a 12% poverty rate while at the same is the first in the country for owners of second homes—a tax issue that affects voting. COVID-19 and economic trouble are impacting Maine in ways that are still unfolding in terms of voting patterns. Non-farm jobs decreased in 2020 by 8.0%, but were beginning to rebound in May primarily because of reopening of businesses and the Paycheck Protection Program. COVID-19 is beginning to climb again in Maine this summer. Elsewhere in the country, these dynamics have led to voters looking for a change in leadership. We’ll keep our eye on how they unfold in Maine—and even nudge them. With WNDC’s work, we can continue Maine’s recent trend to Dem!WNDC-Supported Candidate
US SENATE
Sara Gideon
Election Timelines
Information coming soon.
Montana is a red state when it comes to presidential elections. However, it has occasionally voted blue in state level elections, which is something the Biden campaign is keeping its eye on. Recent notable Democratic Montanans include Steve Bullock who is the current, two-term governor (who is now the Senate candidate) and Jon Tester who currently holds the second Senate seat. Governor Bullock is very popular thanks to his strong handling of COVID-19, which is also a boon for Democrats. Perhaps this is indicative of a larger trend, which is also shaped by Democrats moving to Montana cities such as Bozeman.
An early August Emerson College poll found Trump leading Biden, but with undecideds breaking for Biden 3:1 and independents also favoring Biden. The poll further noted that Biden seems to be gaining the votes of people who went third party in 2016. Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, but most current polls have him leading Biden by considerably less in 2020 — between four and nine points. Most pollsters attribute this drop to Montanans’ perception of Trump’s handling of COVID to be poor. Montanans are famously independent, so let’s help them reject Trump and his ilk.
WNDC-Supported Candidate
US SENATE
Steve Bullock
Election Timelines
Sat, Sep 19 – Military and Overseas Ballots Mailed
Fri, Oct 2 – Date by which absentee ballots must be available for voting in person for those counties that “opt-in” to conduct a mail ballot election.
Mon, Oct 5 – Date by which absentee ballots must be available for voting in person for those counties that are conducting a polling place election.
Thurs, Oct 8 – Date by which ballots are mailed to electors on the absentee list. For those counties that are conducting a mail ballot election, date by which ballots are mailed to all active registered voters.
Mon, Oct 26 – Close of regular voter registration
Tues, Oct 27 – Beginning of late registration
Mon, Nov 2 – Noon – Deadline for election administrator to receive application for absentee ballot.
Mon, Nov 2 – Deadline for election administrators to enter into statewide voter registration system all voter registration applications received by regular registration deadline
Excitement abounds in North Carolina—great as Democrats see it as crucial to their bid to capture the Senate majority in November. Outside groups from both parties have poured millions of dollars into the state in anticipation of a brutal fall campaign season. Most polls have put Biden at least three points ahead of Trump since mid-April, sometimes as many as seven points.
Other regional factors may have a positive impact on North Carolina’s Blue prospects. Amy McGrath’s strong poll numbers in nearby Kentucky might make the GOP pull funds from North Carolina to redirect in order to support Mitch McConnell. This can only help Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham.
Significantly, there are signs that the very red state may be turning against Trump. The Trump-blessed incumbent was beaten in the GOP House primary, which does not bode well for GOP turnout hopes in November. On the other hand, NC Dems saw a huge increase in turnout in the 2018 midterms. Pundits say the GOP has largely maximized its base turnout. But as the state turns more urban and experiences increases in numbers of people of color, Dems still have many new pools of voters to tap into—and a plan to do so!WNDC-Supported Candidates
US SENATE
Cal Cunningham
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Kathy Manning
Pat Timmons-Goodson
Election Timelines
Fri, Sept 4 – Absentee by mail ballots will start being mailed on September 4, 2020, to voters who have requested a ballot.
Fri, Oct 9 – Regular voter registration deadline
Thur, Oct 15 – First day of in-person early voting
Tues, Oct 27 – Last day to request a mail-in ballot
Sat, Oct 31 – Last day of in-person early voting.
Is Texas turning blue before our eyes?!
For decades Texas has been considered a Republican stronghold in the Presidential or US Senate races; however, wins by numerous Democratic House candidates in 2018 plus recent polling showing fallout with Republican voters over both Trump’s and Governor Abbot’s poor handling of COVID-19 have changed that calculation. In 2016 Clinton lost by nine points here, but in 2018, Beto O’Rourke lost to Ted Cruz by a mere three points. Changing demographics and college-educated suburbanites have made this turnaround possible. In mid-July, Biden released his first campaign ad targeted at these voters. Recent polling has shown Biden and Trump currently in a dead heat.
The dangerous challenge is ongoing efforts by Republicans to suppress Democratic votes, attributed to years of gerrymandering and recent wins in the state legislature and court battles, whose rulings have delivered a huge blow to voting rights. Some good news, however: Both the July 14th runoff and the previous Super Tuesday primary brought out a record number of voters, even though 100’s of polling stations had been closed. Also, the number of voter protection organizations to level the playing field in this state has increased to ensure as few people as possible are disenfranchised. WNDC is supporting these efforts in a partnership with Reclaim Our Vote. Help us help ALL Americans to vote, and vote for change!WNDC-Supported Candidates
US SENATE
MJ Hegar
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Wendy Davis
Sri Preston Kulkarni
Gina Ortiz-Jones
Candace Valenzuela
Election Timelines
Mon, Oct 5 – Last day to register to vote
Tues, Oct 13 – First day of in-person early voting
Fri, Oct 23 – Last day to apply to vote by mail; applications must be received by 10/23, not postmarked
Fri, Oct 30- Last day of in-person early voting